Reporting on what moved the odds on New Jersey questions and why: a court order, a debate, a poll, each story dated and tied to the contract it tests.
Polymarket priced the Giants at 11% to win the NFC East on October 5, 2026, behind two 2-2 rivals near 40%, which means the market is reading a 3-1 start as four games played rather than a division lead.
New Jersey Predictions staff ·
The state's October 1, 2026 count puts Republicans 16,197 ahead of Democrats in the 7th District, down from 18,950 on primary day, while Kalshi priced a Democratic win at 89% on October 5, so the board is reading unaffiliated voters, not party rolls.
Photo: Office of Congressman Tom Kean, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
The September 22, 2026 complaint says the state and five counties answered a July 31 request for voter-roll maintenance records with two lists and refusals, which puts the rolls the November 3 ballot runs on before a federal judge six weeks out.
Photo: ajay_suresh / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0
The Court's September 22, 2026 order pushed the response to New Jersey's petition from October 8 to November 9, which leaves the state's bid to enforce its sports-wagering law against Kalshi's contracts unanswered until six days after Election Day.
Photo: Mathieu Landretti / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Kalshi and Polymarket priced a Democratic winner of the 7th District at 87% and 88% as the September 27, 2026 debate opened and at 88% and 89% the next afternoon, which means the only Kean-Bennett debate was treated as priced in before it began.
Photo: Wlazeus2 / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Two venues price a Democratic win at 88% and 89% as of September 28, 2026, while the newest independent poll had Bennett up five inside its margin and Kean carried the district twice by five, so the price runs ahead of its record.
Photo: Office of Congressman Tom Kean, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
6 stories, the whole archive, newest first · a story runs here because something happened on a dated New Jersey record, not because a price moved
Every story here begins with something that happened on a date and can be checked, and says what a New Jersey contract did with it. The first stories set the pattern: the Supreme Court's September 22, 2026 order moving Kalshi's answer to New Jersey's petition to November 9, six days after the election; the only scheduled debate in the 7th District, held in Rahway on September 27, 2026, which left both exchanges' prices where they stood; and an analysis of why the 7th District market is surer of its favorite than the Cook Political Report, the one independent poll or the seat's own history. A poll is a story when the market's answer is the point, a filing on the day it is docketed, a debate when the price says whether it mattered. Nothing runs because a day was quiet.
The election calendar belongs to the Division of Elections: counties began mailing ballots on September 19, 2026, registration closes on October 13, early voting runs from October 24 to November 1, and the general election falls on November 3, when the Senate contract and the House district contracts, the 7th's among them, settle on each winner's party under the exchanges' rules; mail ballots postmarked by Election Day count if received by November 9, and the Board of State Canvassers certifies by December 3. Until then the catalysts are polls with a published method, debates held or declined, and a large trade on one exchange that the other does not follow. The legal file keeps its own dates: the Third Circuit affirmed on April 6, 2026 the order that bars the state from enforcement actions over Kalshi's sports-related contracts, the state's petition was docketed at the Supreme Court on September 8, and the response is due November 9, 2026; any order, filing or venue notice naming New Jersey is a story the day it appears and then a line on the legal status page.
A survey reports what a few hundred people told a caller; a price reports what traders will risk on the answer, and where the two part company the divergence is the story. Each article carries the figure it was written on, dated and attributed to the exchange that printed it, while the contract's own page shows the live one. When the same thesis needs newer numbers the existing article is updated and re-dated with a note of what changed; a new event gets a new article that links back. Where two exchanges price the contract a story names, both figures appear; where one does, the story says so. Once the event behind a story has played out the article is closed and kept at its address as the record of what the market believed that day. Nothing here says which side to take.
A dated event with a public source that moves or tests the price of a New Jersey contract: a court order such as the Supreme Court's of September 22, 2026, a poll with a published method, a debate, a campaign filing or a large trade on one exchange. A day on which nothing happened is not a story.
The 2026 race for the United States Senate seat on the state's ballot and the House contests in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th Districts, each priced by party on Kalshi and Polymarket, with the 7th District the first to carry stories of its own.
On the party of the winner of the November 3, 2026 general election under each exchange's rules, not on a named candidate whatever label sits beside the price: on Kalshi, the party of the person sworn in for the term beginning in 2027; on Polymarket, the party whose nominee wins, with a replacement nominee carrying the contract.
November 9, 2026, the date the Supreme Court set on September 22, 2026 for Kalshi's response to New Jersey's petition for a writ of certiorari in No. 26-299, after the Third Circuit affirmed the injunction against the state's enforcement on April 6, 2026. The legal status page carries each later order with its date.
The legal status page reports the record, not a verdict: as of September 28, 2026 it sets out the Division of Gaming Enforcement's letter of March 27, 2025, the District of New Jersey's injunction of April 28, 2025, the Third Circuit's affirmance of April 6, 2026 and the pending petition, draws no conclusion, and is next reviewed on October 12, 2026. Nothing here is legal advice.