New Jersey Elections Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
New Jersey's 2026 elections as the prediction markets price them: the November 3 ballot in ballot order, the Senate seat and then the House districts, both sides quoted. When New Jerseyans vote is here too.
The ballot
10 races priced · the first 3 as cards, the rest as rows, in ballot orderPolitics, by volume →New Jersey Senate Odds 2026
New Jersey 1st District Odds 2026
New Jersey 2nd District Odds 2026
| Race | Quoted sides | Price | 24h | Other side | Volume | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. House 9 races priced · ballot order · 2 are cards above | ||||||
| New Jersey 3rd District Odds 20263rd District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 98%No 2% | 98%-4900 | — | No 2%other side | $46K$165 24h | No date servedvote |
| New Jersey 5th District Odds 20265th District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 95%No 5% | 95%-1900 | down 3 points over 24h | No 5%other side | $37K$5 24h | No date servedvote |
| New Jersey 7th District Odds 20267th District · 2 outcomes · Kalshi · 2 venues | Democratic Party 89%No 11% | 89%-809 | up 1 points over 24h | No 11%other side | $252K$289 24h | No date servedvote |
| New Jersey 9th District Odds 20269th District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 98%No 2% | 98%-4900 | up 1 points over 24h | No 2%other side | $54K$727 24h | No date servedvote |
| New Jersey 10th District Odds 202610th District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 99%No 1% | 99%-9900 | — | No 1%other side | $59K$16 24h | No date servedvote |
| New Jersey 11th District Odds 202611th District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 96%No 6% | 96%-2400 | — | No 6%other side | $65Kno 24h volume served | No date servedvote |
| New Jersey 12th District Odds 202612th District · 2 outcomes · Kalshi · 2 venues | Democratic Party 96%No 4% | 96%-2400 | up 2 points over 24h | No 4%other side | $41Kno 24h volume served | No date servedvote |
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Top New Jersey Election Markets
This page is the November 3, 2026 ballot as Kalshi and Polymarket price it: one contract per federal race, paying on the party of the winner, listed in the order the offices appear rather than by money. The Class II seat in the United States Senate leads and the House districts follow by number, the order the Division of Elections uses on its certified list. Every row quotes both sides as the exchanges quote them, the Democratic contract beside the Republican one, and opens the race's page: the Senate seat, then the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th districts. A lead on this page is a price, not a call.
What Moves New Jersey Election Markets
County clerks began mailing ballots on September 19, 2026; registration closes October 13; a mailed application for a mail ballot must reach the county clerk by October 27. In-person early voting runs from October 24 through November 1, and in-person mail-ballot applications close at 3 p.m. on November 2. The polls are open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. on November 3, and a ballot postmarked by then counts if the county has it by November 9. County boards of canvassers meet November 18 and the Board of State Canvassers certifies on or before December 3. The nominees were settled at the June 2 primary and certified July 27; August 27 was the last day to fill a vacancy on a party line, and every contract reads party rather than person. The districts vote on the map the state's Congressional Redistricting Commission adopted for the 2022 cycle, the same lines counted in 2022 and 2024.
Why New Jersey Election Prediction Markets
A forecast is free; a price cost someone money. The price of a contract that pays only if one party wins reads as the probability traders imply, and this site shows it as a percentage, keeping Kalshi's figure and Polymarket's apart when both list a race. The rules are fixed before trading and they differ: Kalshi's New Jersey contracts pay on the party of the person sworn in for the term that begins at noon on January 3, 2027, and may settle early on a media consensus; Polymarket settles its House contracts on the party of the winner once the races are conclusively called, and its Senate contract when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all name the same winner, or on the certification if they do not. Kalshi's margin and turnout ladders are described on the politics page; what New Jersey's regulator and courts have said about the exchanges is on the legal status page.
Questions readers ask
How do election prediction markets work?
Each race is a contract that pays a fixed amount if one party's nominee wins the seat and nothing if not, so the price traders pay, shown here as a percentage, is the probability they put on that result. Kalshi and Polymarket list the New Jersey races, and the site shows each exchange's price on its own rather than blending them.
Which New Jersey 2026 elections have prediction markets?
The November 3, 2026 general election for the state's Class II seat in the United States Senate and for its seats in the United States House, each priced as a contract on the winning party by Kalshi and Polymarket; Kalshi alone also lists margin-of-victory and turnout ladders on those races.
How do New Jersey election markets settle?
Each contract names its settlement before it trades. Kalshi's pay on the party of the person sworn in for the term beginning January 3, 2027, with settlement expected on January 4, 2027; Polymarket's House contracts settle when the races are conclusively called and its Senate contract once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC agree, so an election-night projection settles nothing by itself.
When can I vote in the New Jersey 2026 elections?
In person early from October 24 through November 1, 2026, Monday to Saturday from 10 in the morning until 8 in the evening and Sunday from 10 until 6, or at the polls on Tuesday, November 3 from 6 in the morning until 8 at night; registration closes October 13 and a mail-ballot application by post is due October 27, per the New Jersey Division of Elections.
Are election prediction markets legal in New Jersey?
That question is answered on the site's legal status page as of its own review date, which records what the state's gaming regulator, the federal courts and the exchanges' notices say about each venue in New Jersey and draws no conclusion where they are silent. Nothing on this elections page is legal advice.