New Jersey politics prediction markets from the state's side: the Senate seat and the House districts, priced as contracts by two exchanges and settled on the sworn-in officeholder or the certified count, not a projection.
| Market | Quoted sides | Price | 24h | Other side | Volume | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Jersey 2nd District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Republican Party 79%No 21% | 79%-376 | up 2 points over 24h | No 21%other side | $64K$140 24h | No date servedvote |
| New Jersey 1st District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 96%No 4% | 96%-2400 | up 2 points over 24h | No 4%other side | $57K$31 24h | No date servedvote |
| New Jersey Senate Odds 2026Statewide · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 97%No 2% | 97%-3233 | — | No 2%other side | $64K$20 24h | Jan 4, 2027vote |
| New Jersey 10th District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 99%No 1% | 99%-9900 | — | No 1%other side | $59K$16 24h | No date servedvote |
| New Jersey 5th District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 95%No 5% | 95%-1900 | down 3 points over 24h | No 5%other side | $37K$5 24h | No date servedvote |
| New Jersey 11th District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 96%No 6% | 96%-2400 | — | No 6%other side | $65Kno 24h volume served | No date servedvote |
| New Jersey 12th District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Kalshi · 2 venues | Democratic Party 96%No 4% | 96%-2400 | up 2 points over 24h | No 4%other side | $41Kno 24h volume served | No date servedvote |
Polymarket priced the Giants at 11% to win the NFC East on October 5, 2026, behind two 2-2 rivals near 40%, which means the market is reading a 3-1 start as four games played rather than a division lead.
New Jersey Predictions staff ·
Every board here asks which party holds a seat when the next term begins. The Senate race, for the state's Class II Senate seat, is priced by Kalshi and Polymarket, and each House district carries a contract of the same shape, from the 1st District, which covers all of Camden County, to the 12th District across parts of Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset and Union counties. Three of the seats were held by a Republican in the 119th Congress, the 2nd, the 4th and the 7th, and on September 28, 2026 the 7th District board had drawn more trading than any other New Jersey board. Kalshi alone runs a margin-of-victory ladder on the Senate race and turnout ladders on the House seats, and those stay on the exchange. Prices sit on each board's page.
County clerks began mailing ballots for the November 3, 2026 general election on September 19; registration closes October 13; early voting runs from October 24 through November 1; polls are open 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day. The nominees were fixed at the June 2 primary and certified on July 27, and August 27 was the last day to fill a vacancy on a party line, though every contract reads party, not person. County boards canvass on November 18, the Board of State Canvassers certifies on or before December 3, and the new terms begin at noon on January 3, 2027, which Kalshi's contracts are written to. A debate, a poll, a rating change or the campaign-finance reports due October 15 and October 22 reprice a district between those dates. The governor's office, which Mikie Sherrill has held since January 20, 2026, is not priced here; the certified list for November 3 covers the federal offices.
A contract pays a fixed amount if its party takes the seat and nothing otherwise, so the price reads as the probability the market implies, shown as a percentage, never in cents. Both exchanges list every board here, and each book's figure is printed on its own. Settlement is fixed before the first trade and differs by book: Kalshi pays on the party of the person sworn in for the term beginning in 2027 and can settle earlier on a media consensus; Polymarket's House contracts pay on the party of the winner once the races are conclusively called, and its Senate contract waits for the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC to name the same winner, or for the state's certification. What New Jersey's regulator and courts have said about the exchanges is on the legal status page.
A contract pays a set amount if its outcome happens, such as the Democratic nominee taking New Jersey's Senate seat on November 3, 2026, and nothing otherwise, so its price is the probability traders assign to that outcome, printed on this site as a percentage. Kalshi and Polymarket list the New Jersey contracts and match the trades; New Jersey Predictions reports the prices and takes no side.
The November 3, 2026 races for the state's Class II seat in the United States Senate and for each of its districts in the United States House are priced as contracts on the winning party, on both Kalshi and Polymarket; Kalshi alone adds a margin-of-victory ladder on the Senate race and turnout ladders on the House seats.
On a rule each contract states before it trades. Kalshi's New Jersey contracts pay on the party of the person sworn in for the term beginning in 2027, expected on January 4, 2027, and may settle early on a media consensus; Polymarket's House contracts settle when the races are conclusively called, and its Senate contract once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC agree.
On the two exchanges that list each board, which are named on its page. On September 28, 2026 Kalshi and Polymarket both listed the New Jersey Senate contract and every House district contract written up here; New Jersey Predictions is a reader's site and executes nothing.
The site's legal status page carries that answer as of a stated review date, setting out what the state's gaming regulator, the federal courts and the exchanges' own notices say about each venue in New Jersey and drawing no conclusion where the record does not. Nothing on this politics page is legal advice.