New Jersey Politician Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
A page for every New Jerseyan a prediction market prices, officeholder or candidate, stating the office or the ballot line from the public record and the contracts that involve the person.
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AnalysisThe Giants Lead the NFC East, and the Division Market Still Ranks Them Third
Polymarket priced the Giants at 11% to win the NFC East on October 5, 2026, behind two 2-2 rivals near 40%, which means the market is reading a 3-1 start as four games played rather than a division lead.
Photo: Jaggerhornik / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Local newsRepublicans' Voter Registration Edge in NJ-7 Shrank for a Fourth Straight Month
The state's October 1, 2026 count puts Republicans 16,197 ahead of Democrats in the 7th District, down from 18,950 on primary day, while Kalshi priced a Democratic win at 89% on October 5, so the board is reading unaffiliated voters, not party rolls.
Photo: Office of Congressman Tom Kean, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Local newsThe RNC and Kean Sued for New Jersey's Voter-Roll Records, and the Counties Answer Alone
The September 22, 2026 complaint says the state and five counties answered a July 31 request for voter-roll maintenance records with two lists and refusals, which puts the rolls the November 3 ballot runs on before a federal judge six weeks out.
Photo: ajay_suresh / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0
What the New Jersey People Index Holds
No person page is published yet, so the index opens with the rule that admits one. A New Jerseyan gets a page when a contract on this site names them or prices a race they are in, and when their office or ballot line can be read from an official record: Wikidata checked against the office's own site, the Clerk of the House's member list, the New Jersey Division of Elections' certified lists or a Federal Election Commission filing. The register is offices, not markets: the U.S. Senate seat on the state's November 3, 2026 ballot, the twelve members New Jersey sends to the U.S. House, and any state officeholder or candidate an exchange writes a contract about. Every New Jersey race contract priced so far settles on the party of the winner rather than on a named person, and a candidate's page will say so. Until the first page is published, the Senate market page and the district pages, the 7th and the 11th among them, carry the contracts.
What Changes the New Jersey People Index
A person is added when a qualifying contract appears and the office claim can be sourced, never from a display label alone, because an exchange can print a candidate's name on a contract that settles on a party. An existing page changes on dated events: the November 3, 2026 general election, with early voting from October 24 to November 1 and the Board of State Canvassers' certification due by December 3, 2026; a resignation; an appointment; a special election; or a new contract naming the person. The office line is rechecked every 30 days against Wikidata and the office's own record, every 7 days in the last month before the election, and a projection is never written up as a result. A national contract about a New Jerseyan appears on the person's page as a named market linking to Prediction Genius, never as a New Jersey market page.
Why New Jersey Politician Prediction Markets
A race contract pays a fixed sum on the outcome its exchange's rules name, so its price is the probability traders assign to that outcome, revised whenever someone trades. A person page does not quote that price. It carries what the contract asks, what it settles on and which exchange lists it, and leaves the figure to the market page, where each venue's number stands under its own name. For the New Jersey races priced here, settlement is the party of the person sworn in for the term that begins in 2027 on one exchange, and the party of the nominee who wins the election on the other. Nothing on a person page grades a politician or takes a side: the record supplies the office, the race and the contract, and the market supplies the rest.
Questions readers ask
How do prediction markets on politicians work?
A contract names an outcome about a race or an office, such as which party wins New Jersey's United States Senate seat on November 3, 2026, and pays a fixed amount if it happens. Its price is the share of that payout traders are paying, so it reads as an implied probability, and it settles on the result the exchange's rules name rather than on a poll or a projection.
Which New Jersey politicians have prediction markets?
The candidates and officeholders in the races New Jersey contracts price: in 2026 the United States Senate seat on the state's ballot and its twelve seats in the United States House, all priced by party rather than by name. A person joins this index once a contract involves them and an official record such as Wikidata or the Division of Elections confirms the office or the candidacy.
Do New Jersey election contracts settle on the candidate or the party?
The party. Each New Jersey race contract on this site resolves on the party of the winner, as the exchanges' rules state: on Kalshi, the party of the person sworn in for the term beginning in 2027; on Polymarket, the party whose nominee wins the November 3, 2026 election, with a replacement nominee carrying the contract. A candidate's name beside a price is a label, not the contract.
Where can I trade markets on New Jersey politicians?
On the exchange that lists the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket both price the New Jersey race contracts on this site, and each market page names the venue behind every figure it shows. New Jersey Predictions is not an exchange, runs no market and takes no trades.
Are prediction markets on politicians legal in New Jersey?
The legal status page answers from the record: it sets out what the Division of Gaming Enforcement, the federal courts and the venues’ own documents have said as of September 28, 2026, with the next review on October 12, 2026, and draws no conclusion beyond it. This index does not decide the question, and nothing on New Jersey Predictions is legal advice.