Cory Booker Prediction Markets & 2026 Senate Odds

Cory Booker and the New Jersey Senate market

The contract that puts Booker on this site is the New Jersey Senate odds market, and on paper it never asked about him. Kalshi ran the question on its SENATENJ-26 event, which pays on the party of the person sworn in as a Senator of New Jersey for the term beginning in 2027, and allowed an early determination once a consensus of media organizations projected the winner. Polymarket's New Jersey Senate Election Winner event pays on the winner of the 2026 election, counts a candidate for a party only as that party's nominee, and resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. Booker was the Democratic nominee, so both books were a question about his party that, in practice, turned on him.

Both have settled. Kalshi's data shows its Democratic contract finalized at Yes on the night of November 3, 2026, and Polymarket's market resolved for Booker the same night. What the market priced before the vote, and where it closed, is on the race page; this page quotes no figure, because the contracts are closed and what is left for the seat is a set of dates. The size of the electorate that decided the race has its own page, New Jersey Senate turnout odds, and the House races on the same ballot are priced district by district on the New Jersey House seats odds page and the district pages under it.

Current office and record

Booker has held New Jersey's Class II seat in the United States Senate since October 31, 2013, with no gap in the positions Wikidata lists for him. He first won it in a 2013 special election, succeeding Jeffrey Chiesa, and won full six-year terms at the 2014 and 2020 elections; the term he is serving now began on January 3, 2021. The Senate's own list of members gives him as Cory A. Booker of New Jersey, Democratic, in Class II, beside Andy Kim in Class I. His Senate office's biography says he won the October 2013 special election and was re-elected in November 2014 to a full six-year term.

Before the Senate he was mayor of Newark from July 1, 2006 to October 31, 2013, succeeding Sharpe James, and before that a member of the Newark City Council from July 1, 1998 to June 30, 2002. His office's biography puts his election to the council at age 29 and his time as mayor at 2006 to 2013. He is a member of the Democratic Party.

What has moved the market

The seat was never priced as a close race, so the events that mattered were the ones that could have changed that and did not. On October 8, 2026 Booker and the Republican nominee, Justin Murphy, met for an hour at Rider University in Lawrenceville in what the New Jersey Globe, which sponsored the debate with Rider, called their first and only debate of the year; the sharpest exchange was over the war with Iran, and the Globe described the debate as civil. The board's response is covered in the story on the Booker-Murphy debate.

The money gap widened into the last federal report before the vote. Through October 14, 2026 Booker's campaign had reported $21.3M in receipts for the 2025-26 cycle and $22.9M in cash on hand, against Murphy's $68.2K raised and $10.2K in cash, per the Federal Election Commission's campaign summaries.

Then came the vote. NBC News projected Booker the winner of the November 3, 2026 election, and FOX 5 New York, carrying Associated Press results, reported on November 4 that he easily won re-election to a third full term. At 12:26 p.m. Eastern on November 5, 2026 NBC News had him ahead of Murphy by 1,789,693 votes to 1,016,966, a margin of about 27 points, with about 163,000 votes it estimated were still to count. These are unofficial results until the state certifies them. The night is told in the story on Booker's third-term win.

What happens next

The count and the certification run on the state's own timetable. Under the Division of Elections' 2026 timeline, postmarked mail-in ballots count if the county boards receive them by November 9 and cure forms are due by November 14; the county boards of canvassers meet on November 18, recount applications are due by November 21, and county clerks send official results to the Secretary of State by November 23. The Board of State Canvassers certifies the general election by December 3, 2026, and election-contest petitions are due by December 5.

The term Booker won begins in 2027 and has not started; the Kalshi contract was written around the swearing-in for it. The rest of the state's ballot sits under the elections pages, the news that moved it under the politics hub, and the other people a New Jersey contract names on the people index. Next review: November 19, 2026.